油价上升的一些原因为-油价上涨的原因究竟是什么呢英语

2024-11-30 01:01:41

原文：

石油危机：

摆脱不了战争的影子

如果从近年油价上涨的轨迹看，新一轮石油属于“渐进式”上涨，到2008年达到了矛盾爆发的“临界点”。纵观近年来的国际环境，油价同样摆脱不了战争的影子。

有学者早就提出“2004年是石油危机的爆发之年”，这一年正是伊战爆发的第二年。

有数据显示，伊战爆发一周年后，由于战争显现出持久战迹象，原本认为战争会很快结束的想法，逐渐转变成了对石油供应的担忧。当年3月27日，国际原油期货首次超过每桶30美元。此后，伊战背景下的油价上涨速度明显加快：2004年为41.5美元，2005年为56.7美元，2006年为66.2美元，2007年（截至10月份）为72.5美元。而到了2008年1月3日，国际原油期货价格盘中首次突破100美元。

前美联储主席格林斯潘在回忆录中，隐讳地表达了伊战的石油政治企图，认为两场战争（海湾战争与伊战）是两次石油危机的逻辑连接点。

能源争夺：

炒作油价的“政治土壤”

北京大学国际关系学院博士生导师、《美国国家战略》一书的作者刘金质教授认为，新一轮石油危机的蔓延，与前几次石油供应骤然减少不同，这次危机中石油供需不存在石油短缺的情况。在供需没发生根本改变的情况下，这次油价飙升的炒作成分更多些。在各国重视能源、争夺能源的大背景下，国际油价显得非常“敏感”，从而易于被各种市场与政治力量无限“放大”。

如果从更大范围观察，除了资本在炒作能源外，各国实际上也在“炒”能源，争夺能源的“无硝烟战争”氛围很浓厚。非洲与北极自去年以来备受关注，就是因为这两个区域将是未来油气开采的新领地。

同样，自去年以来，伊朗、委内瑞拉两国一直在利用“能源武器”拓展外交空间。由于伊朗能源丰富，欧盟、俄罗斯、日本、印度等国与伊朗存在能源合作，极大牵制了安理会对伊朗制裁的步伐，使美国孤立伊朗的任何企图都变得复杂化。对委内瑞拉的查韦斯来说，国内油气资源则是对抗美国的核心本钱。

刘金质教授认为，俄罗斯日益娴熟地动用“能源牌”，就是发挥“能源外交”的很好案例。在全球能源问题日益突出的背景下，俄罗斯将提高油气产能、发展对外油气合作作为拓展国家利益、提升大国地位的重要手段，借此加快自身国力的恢复与发展。

“心理预期”推高油价

早在2008年前，就有科学家认为，石油生产的“巅峰”时期将在未来5~10年到来。一旦石油生产“巅峰”时代到来，石油产量将逐年下降。

从长远看，由于全球对能源需求预期的增量呈上升趋势，而能源又具有不可再生与稀缺性，类似“心理预期”将使油价始终维持高位运行。

即便是类似太阳能、风能、生物源这样的再生能源，在最好的情况下，也只能满足工业化国家能源需求的四分之一。虽然供需矛盾短期内可以解决，油价短期内可以迅速回落，但从长期来说，“能源逐步枯竭论”的预期，始终是投机资本兴风作浪的支撑点。

因此，要想解决国际油价的攀升，还必须消除全球对今后能源生产与供应不足的担忧，化解类似“石油枯竭”的心理预期。不过，就目前来看，“能源短缺”的心理预期显然无法消除。

翻译： (中文 ? 英语)

The oil crisis:

Could not escape the shadow of war

If rising oil prices in recent years from the track, a new round of oil a "gradual" rise to the 2008 outbreak of the conflict reached a "critical point." Looking at the international environment in recent years, oil prices also could not escape the shadow of war.

Some scholars have long put forward the "oil crisis in 2004 is the year of the outbreak," This year is the second year of the war in Iraq broke out.

Statistics show that after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the war showed signs of a protracted war, was that war would end very soon the idea of a gradual change in the oil supply concerns. That on March 27, the first international crude oil futures more than 30 U.S. dollars a barrel. Since then, the war in Iraq against the background of the rising oil prices significantly speed up the pace: in 2004 was 41.5 dollars in 2005 to 56.7 U.S. dollars and 66.2 U.S. dollars for 2006, 2007 (as at October) to 72.5 U.S. dollars. And to the January 3, 2008, after international crude oil futures prices exceeded 100 U.S. dollars.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in his memoirs, Yin Hui expressed the political attempts to Iraq's oil that the two wars (the Gulf War and the war in Iraq) is the two oil crises of the logic connection point.

Energy for:

The oil price speculation "political soil"

Institute of International Relations at Peking University doctoral tutor, "U.S. national strategy," a book the author Professor Liu Jinzhi, a new round of the spread of the oil crisis, and on previous occasions to reduce the supply of oil suddenly different, the crisis in oil supply and demand of oil shortage does not exist The situation. Did not occur in the supply and demand fundamental change in the circumstances, the surge in oil prices of more components such speculation. In countries attach importance to energy, energy for the big context, the international oil price is very "sensitive" and thus easy to market and the various political forces unlimited "Larger."

If the larger scope of observation, in addition to the capital in energy speculation, in fact all countries are "speculation" energy, energy for the "no smoke of war" atmosphere is very strong. Africa and the Arctic since last year of concern, it is because the two regions will be the future of oil and gas exploitation of the new territory.

Similarly, since last year, Iran and Venezuela have been using "energy weapon" expanding its diplomatic space. As energy-rich Iran, the European Union, Russia, Japan, India and other countries for energy cooperation with Iran exist, the Council's great to contain the pace of sanctions on Iran, the United States any attempt to isolate Iran have become complicated. Venezuela's Chavez, the domestic oil and gas resources is the core capital against the United States.

Professor Liu Jinzhi that Russia increasingly skilful use of "energy card", is to play "energy diplomacy" very good case. In the global energy issues have become increasingly prominent as a backdrop, Russia will increase oil production capacity, the development of foreign oil and gas cooperation as the interests of developing countries, upgrading the status of an important means to accelerate its national strength of the recovery and development.

"Psychological expected to" push up oil prices

As early as 2008, scientists have considered that the oil production "peak" period in the next five to 10 arrival. Once oil production "peak" times come, oil production will decline year by year.

The long run, global demand for energy due to the expected incremental upward trend, but also with non-renewable energy and scarce, similar to "psychological expectations" will always maintain high oil prices.

Even if the similar solar, wind, biological sources such renewable energy sources, in the best of circumstances, can only meet the energy needs of the industrialized countries of the quarter. Although the conflict between supply and demand can be solved in the short term, oil prices could rapidly fall in the short term, but long term, "gradual depletion of energy," expected, is always the strong point of speculative capital stir up trouble.

Therefore, in order to solve the rising international oil prices, we must also eliminate the future of global energy production and supply shortage concerns, similar to defuse the "oil depletion" psychological expectations. However, the present situation, "energy shortage" of the psychological expectations obviously can not eliminate.

英语单选

难道经济衰退的苦难岁月又要回来了吗？自OPEC在三月份同意消减原油供应以来，原油价格每桶已暴涨到约26美元，而去年12月还不到10美元一桶。将近三倍的石油价格不得不让人回忆起73年石油危机导致石油价格暴涨四倍的可怕经历，还有79-80年间的石油价格也曾暴涨成如今的这般模样。两场少见的石油危机都可归结于两位数的通货膨胀和全球性的经济衰退。而这一次，那些警告人们厄运当头的头版头条的新闻都跑到哪儿去了呢?

本周另一个推动石油价格暴涨的帮凶就是伊拉克暂时禁止了本国石油的出口业务。与此同时，受正处抗寒关头的北方诸国拉动经济增长的因素影响，也有可能于短期内将石油价格哄抬得更高。

不过也有不少利好因素，可保眼下的这场经济危机不至于惨烈到70年代的那般光景。因为大多数国家现在的汽油价格早已不像70年代那样，其原油价格对汽油价格的影响力已经降至一个较小的范围。欧洲的汽油税就占其零售价格的八成，所以，即使原油价格出现再大的波动，也不会像从前一样“应声而涨”了。

富裕的国家对于石油的依赖程度也较之以往更少，对石油价格的波动也没有那么“在意”。而能源保护的相关政策，促使他们转向其它燃料并降低了对石油的依赖性，也大大降低了石油的重要性。能耗型企业已经降低其消耗量，软件、咨询和移动电话行业对石油的消耗又远小于钢铁和汽车行业。这些富裕国家GDP中的每一美元对石油的依赖程度较之73年约下降了一半。OECD在他的一份最新经济展望中分析石油价格时就如是说道：石油的全年均价约22美元每桶，与98年的每桶13美元的相比，的确增加了进口的总额度，然就富裕国家的GDP而言，这点增量仅仅只占到了0.25-0.5%；而且，不足全年总收入的四分之一，并低于74年、80年的水平。而另一方面，不少国家依赖于进口石油，其重工业业已转向更为密集的产业模式，此种做法可能会进一步地受到油价暴涨的挤压。

一个的确没有必要为了石油涨价而茶饭不思，也与70年代的油价暴涨有着本质性区别的重要理由就是恰好没有出现一般性商品价格通胀和全球性过剩需求的恶劣局面，因为绝大多数国家和地区才刚刚脱离经济衰退的困境。从《经济学家》报上公布的商品价格指数就能清楚地看到，从一年前直到今日，居然丝毫没有变动。